学术前沿 | AJAE：秸秆焚烧如何影响中国的城市空气质量

《AJAE》全称为《American Journal of Agricultural Economics》，最新影响因子为4.70，刊载方向为管理科学-农业经济与政策。

本文转载自公众号中国草业发展战略研究中心

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摘要

在过去的十年中，秸秆焚烧一直被认为是发展中国家严重空气污染的原因之一。但是，其对空气质量影响的大小和模式尚未精确估算。本文采用来自不同卫星源的秸秆燃烧的遥感数据，研究了其对中国城市空气质量的总体影响。以双重差分方法利用290个城市和620天之内秸秆燃烧活动和空气污染的每日变化，发现了秸秆燃烧效应的清晰时间模式。燃烧后的第一天，城市空气污染指数增加了6.5，相当于平均值的9.4%。这种影响会随着时间的推移而减少，并且至少持续八天仍然很明显。对于位于相对于城市区域的上风向的秸秆燃烧，影响更大，并且受较低风速的限制。就距离而言，污染主要是由距市中心100公里之内的秸秆燃烧造成的，但也可能受到距离600公里之外燃烧的影响。在不同的污染物中，秸秆燃烧最多会增加颗粒物。在十月和十一月，作物收割后的北方发生秸秆焚烧最普遍，这种影响最大，而且最持久。在其他季节，这种影响也是不可忽略的。

关键词

农业火灾，空气污染，中国，秸秆焚烧

Abstract

Over the past decade, straw burning has been debated as one of the causes of severe air pollution in developing countries. However, the magnitude and pattern of its impact on air quality have not been precisely estimated. This study employs remote sensing data on straw fires from different satellite sources and examines its overall impact on urban air quality in China. Exploiting daily variations in straw burning activities and air pollution with a difference‐in‐differences strategy across 290 cities and 620 days, I find a clear temporal pattern for the straw burning effect. On the first day after burning, the index of air pollution increases by 6.5 in urban areas, equivalent to 9.4% of the mean. This impact decreases over time and remains significant for at least eight days. The effect is larger for fires located in the upwind direction relative to urban areas and is limited with lower wind speed. In terms of distance, pollution is mostly driven by straw fires within 100 km from urban centers but could also be influenced by fires as far as 600 km away. Among different pollutants, particulate matters are increased most by straw fires. The effect is largest and most persistent in October and November, when straw burning prevails in the north after harvest, but is also non‐negligible in other seasons.

Keywords

Agricultural fire, air pollution, China, straw burning

END

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